Why it matters

AI forecasting informs policy + planning. Growing field with real methods.

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The architecture

Scaling law extrapolation.

Benchmark trends.

Expert surveys.

AI forecastingScaling lawsextrapolateBenchmark trendsover timeExpert surveysinformed forecastMETR autonomy timelines; Epoch AI compute + params tracking
AI forecasting.
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How it works end to end

METR autonomy.

Epoch AI.

Metaculus surveys.